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While Massachusetts is expected to go to Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in the race for President of the United States, influential Massachusetts political insiders have varying opinions on how the U.S. Senate race between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren will affect the presidential race, and vice versa.
According to results from the Blue Commonwealth and Red Commonwealth surveys sent out last week and compiled today, Monday, 60 percent of the 23 local Republicans who responded think that the Brown-Warren race will result a modest increase in votes for Romney, while 40 percent of the 20 local Democrats who responded think the U.S. Senate race will increase Obama's total of Bay State votes, with almost 24 percent saying it will be a "big" increase for the president.
In 2008, Massachusetts voted heavily Democratic, with more than 1,894,000 voters casting ballots for the Obama-Biden team, accounting for 62 percent of the vote. Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin earned nearly 1,105,908 votes, accounting for 36 percent of the vote. According to statistics collected by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth's office, voter turnout was about 73.5 percent that year.
In the January 2010 special election held to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the late Ted Kennedy, Scott Brown defeated Martha Coakley with 1,168,107 votes, or 51.9 percent, to her 1,058,682 votes, or 47.1 percent.
Asked in the survey the effect that the presidential race would have on the Brown-Warren race, 85 percent of local Democrats say they think it will lead to an increase in votes for Warren. On the other side of the aisle, 43.5 percent of Republicans think the presidential race will lead to an increase in votes for Brown, while 34.8 percent of Republicans think it will lead to an increase in votes for Warren.
Other down-ballot races that will affect the presidential race in Massachusetts, according to both local Democrats and Republicans, include the Congressional races pitting John Tierney, Richard Tisei and Daniel Fishman against one another in the Sixth District; and also the battle for the seat being vacated by Barney Frank in the Fourth District: Joe Kennedy III, Sean Bielat and David A. Rosa.
As for how Obama and Romney's campaigns have run their advertising campaigns in Massachusetts, both sides were generally happy with their candidate. Sixty-five percent of local Democrats said that Obama has run a better advertising campaign during the general election, while 86.4 percent of local Republicans said Romney ran the better advertising campaign.
For their final thoughts, some Republicans raised the specter of voter fraud, with comments including "I am concerned about the integrity of the vote, especially in the cities" and "Watch for voter fraud in Lynn." Other Republicans expressed confidence in Romney's ability to pull out a victory and said that the presidential election will affect other down-ballot races, including the Massachusetts ballot questions.
Several Democrats expressed relief that the election will soon be over, with comments including "Can't wait for it to be over!" and similar confidence about Obama's ability to pull out a victory. Politicos on both side of the aisle also expressed disappointment about the onslaught of negative ads during this election year.
And one survey respondent had a request: "Please encourage all Patch readers, regardless of party, to vote Tuesday."
Stay with Patch all day Tuesday as editors update with news and information from local polling places. We will have live election results after the polls close at 8 p.m.
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LIVE 2012 ELECTION RESULTS
| Race | Democratic Candidates | Results | Republican Candidates | Results |
| U.S. President |
Obama-Biden |
Romney-Ryan | ||
| U.S. Senate |
Warren |
Brown | ||
| Answer | Results | Answer | Results | |
| Question 1: 'Right to Repair' |
Yes |
No | ||
| Question 2: Prescription of Life-Ending Medication | Yes | No | ||
| Question 3: Medical Marijuana | Yes | No |